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| Michael Regenstreif |
By Michael Regenstreif
Editor
As Jason Moscovitz notes below, the October 28 issue of the Ottawa
Jewish Bulletin goes to press before the October 21 federal election – so I’m
writing this column before we know the actual results.
However, if the latest polls are close to being accurate, the results of
this election might well be as un-decisive as the results of Israel’s two 2019
elections. As I write, more than a month after Israelis voted on September 17,
a governing coalition is still not in place there.
A poll analysis site I’ve followed throughout the campaign is www.338Canada.com
and its latest projection suggests the Liberal and Conservative parties are
virtually tied with both in the range of taking about 132 seats. The strength
of both major parties has diminished during the campaign while the New Democratic
Party (NDP) and Bloc Québécois (BQ) have each gained significant strength.
With the possibility of up to six parties electing MPs, and the further
possibility of one or two independent members, we may see a situation like
Israel’s in which neither of the major parties has enough potential support in
a minority Parliament to effectively govern.
How did we get to this possible situation? Here are some of the
contributing factors.
While Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s personal brand was already wounded
before the start of the campaign from various broken promises, from mixed
messages on environmental and Indigenous issues, and from the SNC-Lavalin
scandal, it took a major hit a week after the writ dropped with the revelation
that Trudeau, as an adult, had foolishly donned blackface and brownface makeup
on at least three occasions. Any ordinary candidate for Parliament would surely
have been dropped by their party if such a revelation had surfaced during the
campaign.
Meanwhile it came to light that Conservative leader Andrew Scheer holds
dual American and Canadian citizenship. That probably wouldn’t have been too
significant an issue except for the fact that in 2005 Scheer himself raised the
issue of then-governor general Michaëlle Jean’s dual citizenship, and because
in past election campaigns the Conservatives attacked then-Liberal leader
Stéphane Dion and then-NDP leader Tom Mulcair for their dual citizenships.
While Scheer now says he’s begun the process of renouncing his American
citizenship, he was a member of Parliament for 15 years – and served as speaker
of the House of Commons for more than four of those years – without ever
revealing his dual citizenship.
There is no doubt that the NDP’s growing strength outside Quebec can be
attributed to frustrations with the Trudeau Liberals and to strong performances
by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in the debates and on the hustings, and to his
grace under fire from racist attacks.
In Quebec, the rise of the BQ – which 338Canada predicts will win about
35 seats, up from 10 in 2015 – can be at least partially explained by support
among francophone voters for Quebec’s Bill 21 banning certain civil servants
from wearing religious symbols, including Jewish kippahs, Sikh turbans and
Muslim hijabs. While the Liberals remain strong in multicultural Montreal, the
BQ seems set to take most of the francophone ridings off the island of
Montreal. The BQ has promised to protect Bill 21 from federal interference.
Speaking personally, the response to Bill 21 – which achieves its goals
by use of the notwithstanding clause to override the Canadian Charter of Rights
and Freedoms – by all of the federal leaders has been highly disappointing.
While Trudeau, Scheer, Singh and Green Party leader Elizabeth May have all
expressed opposition to Bill 21, only Trudeau will say that the federal
government “might” intervene in a court case against it. Even Trudeau’s “might”
is a weak response. As I noted in my August 19 column, the phrase “a Canadian
is a Canadian is a Canadian” is merely an empty platitude when one province can
get away with removing Charter rights from certain targeted minorities.
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