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| Michael Regenstreif |
By Michael Regenstreif
As a student of
politics (my BA and MA are in political science), this is a fascinating time
for me with the second Israeli election in
less than five months about to take place on September 17 (after this issue of
the Ottawa Jewish Bulletin goes to press but before it comes out), the October
21 federal election campaign here in Canada underway, and a possible election
on the horizon in the United Kingdom. As well, of course, the battle in the
Democratic Party to see who will take on Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S.
presidential election is well underway.
This
Israeli election was called because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could not
put together a governing coalition of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats in
the weeks following the April 9 election. The stumbling block was Yisrael
Beiteinu party leader Avigdor Liberman (a former defence and foreign minister)
who insists that exemptions from military service for haredi men studying Torah
be ended. With that demand, Yisrael Beiteinu members will not serve in a
coalition with the haredi Orthodox parties – whose support is crucial to
Netanyahu’s coalition numbers.
The last Smith Research poll published before the
election suggests Netanyahu’s Likud Party could win 33 seats and that his
potential coalition partners (Yamina, Shas, and United Torah Judaism) could win
a total of 24 seats for a possible coalition of 57 seats. If those predictions
are accurate, Netanyahu will again not have enough support to govern.
Netanyahu’s
rival for the prime minister’s office is Benny Gantz, a former chief of the
Israel Defense Forces, who leads the Blue and White Party. That last Smith
Research poll suggests Blue and White could win 32 seats, putting them in a
neck-and-neck horserace with Likud.
The
poll suggests Blue and White’s likely coalition partners (the Democratic Union
and Labor-Gesher) could win another 11 seats. The wild cards are the Joint List
(an alliance of Arab parties) which is predicted to take 12 seats and Yisrael
Beiteinu which is predicted to win eight seats. If the Joint List and Yisrael
Beiteinu join Gantz’s potential coalition (and that’s a very big if), he will
be in a position to unseat Netanyahu and form a government. Such a coalition
would be precedent-setting as
Israel’s Arab parties have never before participated in a governing coalition.
Another scenario being discussed is Blue and White
forming a power-sharing unity government with Likud. This is a scenario
Liberman is said to favour, as it would mean the haredi parties could be sidelined
on the opposition benches. However, there has been speculation that both Gantz
and Liberman would insist that Netanyahu step down from the Likud leadership.
And Netanyahu has indicated that he’s not interested in such a unity
government.
In
all likelihood, it will be some time before we know what’s to be. It typically
takes weeks of wheeling and dealing after an Israeli election to form a
governing coalition. But if neither block is able to form a governing
coalition, there may be no other choice but a unity government, as it is
doubtful the public would stand for a third election in less than a year.
Editor’s notes
This Rosh Hashanah edition of the Ottawa Jewish Bulletin
is one of the two community-wide issues of the paper that we publish each year
– the other is at Passover – so the paper has been distributed to many in the
community beyond our regular subscribers. We hope you’ll want to subscribe and
receive all 19 of the issues we publish each year. It’s the best way to stay
informed and engage with Ottawa’s vibrant Jewish community. An annual
subscription is still just $36 per year in the Ottawa-Gatineau region. You can
subscribe by calling our business manager, Eddie Peltzman, at 613-798-4616,
ext. 256.
Unfortunately,
for technical reasons beyond our control, we have been unable to add or update
content to our website since August 9. We hope to unveil a new version of the
site in the coming months. In the meantime, we have created a blog – www.ojbulletin.blogspot.com
– to post our columns, some local articles and PDF versions of new print
issues.
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